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Thursday, July 6, 2020
Friday: Employment Report
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
July 6, 2020 at 8:01 pm ET
Earlier: My June Employment Preview and Goldman: June Employment Preview Friday: ‚?Ę At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for June. The consensus is for an increase of 170,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in June, up from the 138,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in May. ... (more)

Goldman Employment Preview
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
July 6, 2020 at 4:51 pm ET
A few excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill: We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased by 180k in June, roughly in line with consensus of +177k ... Our forecast reflects mixed labor market fundamentals in the month ‚?? including solid employment surveys but weaker jobless claims ‚?? ... (more)

June Employment Preview
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
July 6, 2020 at 1:45 pm ET
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for June. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 170,000 non-farm payroll jobs in June (with a range of estimates between 140,000 to 200,000), and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at ... (more)

Las Vegas Real Estate in June: Sales up 10% YoY, Inventory down Sharply
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
July 6, 2020 at 11:59 am ET
This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas saw the largest price decline, following the housing bubble, of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported Southern Nevada home prices and sales keep climbing amid tight supply, GLVAR ... (more)

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 57.4% in June
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
July 6, 2020 at 10:07 am ET
The June ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 57.4%, up from 56.9% in May. The employment index decreased in June to 55.8%, from 57.8%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: June 2017 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business¬ģ Economic activity ... (more)

Trade Deficit at $46.5 Billion in May
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
July 6, 2020 at 8:47 am ET
From the Department of Commerce reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $46.5 billion in May, down $1.1 billion from $47.6 billion in April, revised. May exports were $192.0 billion, $0.9 ... (more)

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 248,000
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
July 6, 2020 at 8:33 am ET
The DOL reported: In the week ending July 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 248,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 244,000. The 4-week moving average was 243,000, an increase of 750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 242,250. ... (more)

ADP: Private Employment increased 158,000 in June
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
July 6, 2020 at 8:20 am ET
From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 158,000 jobs from May to June according to the June ADP National Employment Report¬ģ. ... The report, which is derived from ADP‚??s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. ... ‚??Despite a ... (more)

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
July 6, 2020 at 7:00 am ET
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 1.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association‚??s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 30, 2017. ... The Refinance Index decreased 0.4 percent from ... (more)

Wednesday, July 5, 2020
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ADP Employment, Trade Deficit, ISM non-Mfg Survey
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
July 5, 2020 at 7:21 pm ET
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Finally Catch a Break Mortgage rates had been rising at an uncomfortable pace since June 27th. As of Monday, the average conventional 30yr fixed rate quote was 0.125% higher in 5 business days. That's a fairly abrupt move--especially when ... (more)

FOMC Minutes: Inflation Discussions
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
July 5, 2020 at 2:09 pm ET
From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 13-14, 2017. Excerpts: With regard to the outlook for inflation, some participants emphasized downside risks, particularly in light of the recent low readings on inflation along with measures of inflation compensation and some survey measures of inflation expectations ... (more)

Office Vacancy Rate and Office Investment
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
July 5, 2020 at 12:54 pm ET
Last week Reis reported the office vacancy rate was unchanged at 16.0% in Q2, from 16.0% in Q1. A key question is whether office investment will increase further (as a percent of GDP). The following graph shows the office vacancy rate and office investment as a percent of ... (more)

Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
July 5, 2020 at 10:06 am ET
Here is another update on framing lumber prices. Early in 2013 lumber prices came close to the housing bubble highs - and prices are once again near the bubble highs. The price increases in early 2013 were due to a surge in demand (more housing starts) and supply ... (more)

Tuesday, July 4, 2020
Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
July 4, 2020 at 6:55 pm ET
Happy July 4th! Wednesday: ‚?Ę At 2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes for the Meeting of June 13 - 14, 2017 ... (more)

Hotels: Hotel Occupancy down Year-over-Year
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
July 4, 2020 at 11:11 am ET
From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 24 June The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 18-24 June 2017, according to data from STR. In comparison with the week of 19-25 June 2016, the industry ... (more)

Monday, July 3, 2020
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 16.4 million annual rate in June
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
July 3, 2020 at 2:07 pm ET
Based on a preliminary estimate from WardsAuto (ex-Porsche and Volvo), light vehicle sales were at a 16.42 million SAAR in June. That is down 2% from June 2016, and down 1% from last month. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the historical light ... (more)

Construction Spending unchanged in May
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
July 3, 2020 at 11:57 am ET
Earlier today, the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending was unchanged in May: Construction spending during May 2017 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,230.1 billion, nearly the same as the revised April estimate of $1,230.4 billion. The May figure is 4.5 percent above the May ... (more)

ISM Manufacturing index increased to 57.8 in June
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
July 3, 2020 at 10:03 am ET
The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in June. The PMI was at 57.8% in June, up from 54.9% in May. The employment index was at 57.2%, up from 53.5% last month, and the new orders index was at 63.5%, up from 59.5%. From the Institute for Supply Management: ... (more)

Sunday, July 2, 2020
Monday: Auto Sales, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
July 2, 2020 at 8:11 pm ET
Weekend: ‚?Ę Schedule for Week of July 2, 2020 Monday: ‚?Ę At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 55.1, up from 54.9 in May. ‚?Ę Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for May. The consensus is for ... (more)

June 2016: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 137 Institutions, Q2 2017 Transition Matrix
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
July 2, 2020 at 11:18 am ET
Note: Surferdude808 compiles an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources. Here is the unofficial problem bank list for June 2017. Here are the monthly changes and a few comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for June 2017. During ... (more)

Saturday, July 1, 2020
Schedule for Week of July 2, 2020
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
July 1, 2020 at 8:12 am ET
The key report this week is the June employment report on Friday. Other key indicators include the June ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, June auto sales, and the May Trade Deficit. ----- Monday, July 3rd ----- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for the ... (more)

Friday, June 30, 2020
Vehicle Sales Forecast: "Sixth Consecutive Decline in June"
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
June 30, 2020 at 4:59 pm ET
The automakers will report June vehicle sales on Monday, July 3rd. Note: There were 26 selling days in June 2017, the same as in June 2016. From WardsAuto: U.S. Forecast: Sixth Consecutive Decline in June A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. automakers to deliver 1.50 million light ... (more)

U.S. Births decreased in 2016, Women 30-34 Now have Highest Birth Rate
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
June 30, 2020 at 12:57 pm ET
From the National Center for Health Statistics: Births: Provisional Data for 2016. The NCHS reports: The provisional number of births for the United States in 2016 was 3,941,109, down 1% from 2015. The general fertility rate was 62.0 births per 1,000 women aged 15‚??44, down 1% from 2015 to a ... (more)

Chicago PMI Increases in June, Highest in Three Years
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
June 30, 2020 at 10:05 am ET
From the Chicago PMI: June Chicago Business Barometer at 65.7 vs 59.4 in May The MNI Chicago Business Barometer rose to 65.7 in June from 59.4 in May, the highest level in over three years. ... ‚??June‚??s MNI Chicago Business Barometer Survey is a testament to firms‚?? ... (more)

Personal Income increased 0.4% in May, Spending increased 0.1%
From Calculated Risk - view blog entries - visit this blog
June 30, 2020 at 8:40 am ET
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for May: Personal income increased $67.1 billion (0.4 percent) in May according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. ... personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $7.3 billion (0.1 percent). ... Real PCE increased 0.1 percent. The PCE ... (more)

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